Home
>
Political
>
The Second Coming in Albania

The Second Coming in Albania

Blessed with Chinese GDP growth rates (7-8% annually in each of the last 3 years) and German inflation (4%, down from 32% in 1997, mostly attributable to increases in energy and housing costs), it is easy to forget Albania's Somali recent past.

In 1997, following the collapse of a series of politically-sanctioned pyramid schemes in which one third of the impoverished population lost its meager life savings, Albania imploded. The mob looted 700,000 guns from the armories of the army and the police and went on a rampage, in bloody scenes replete with warlords, crime, and 1500 dead. It took 5% of GDP to recapitalize Albania's tottering banks and overall GDP dropped by 7% that year. During the two preceding years, Albania has been the IMF's poster boy (as it is again nowadays). Since October 1991, the World Bank has approved 43 projects in the country, committed close to $570 million and disbursed two thirds of its commitments. This, excluding $100 million after the 1999 Kosovo crisis and $50 million for agricultural development.

The European Investment Bank (EIB), the EBRD, the EU, and the Stability Pact have committed billions to the region for infrastructure, crime fighting, and institution building projects. Albania stood to benefit from this infusion and from a future Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU (similar to Macedonia's and Croatia's). Yet, as Chris Patten (the Commissioner in charge of aid) himself admitted to "The Economist": "The EU'S capacity for making political promises is more impressive than our past record of delivering financial assistance". The aid was bungled and mired in pernicious bureaucratic infighting. The EU's delegation in Tirana was recently implicated in "serious financial irregularities".

The economic picture (if notoriously unreliable official statistics are to be trusted) has been mixed ever since.

The budget deficit hovers around 9% (similar to Macedonia's, Albania's war ravaged neighbor). The (very soft and very long term) external debt is at a nadir of 28% of GDP (though still 150% of exports) and foreign exchange reserves cover more than 4 months of imports. This is reflected in the (export averse) stable exchange rate of the lek. But the overall public debt is much higher (70%) and the domestic component may well be unsustainable. Money supply is still roaring (+12%), interest rates are punishingly high (8% p.a.) though in steep decline, and GDP per capita is less than $1000. It is still one of Europe's poorest countries (especially its rural north). Most of its GDP growth is in construction and trade. Health and education are decrepit and deteriorating. And people vote with their feet (emigrate in droves) and wallets (the economy is effectively dollarized).

Privatization receipts which were supposed to amortize public debt did not materialize (though there were some notable successes in 2000, including the completion of the privatization of land and of the important mining sector). Negative sentiment towards emerging economies, Albania's proximity to the Kosovo and Macedonia killing fields, and global recession make this prospect even more elusive. Had it not been for the $500 million in remittances from 20% of the workforce who are employed in Greece and Italy - Albania would have been in dire straits. Money from Albanian drug dealers, immigrant smugglers, and other unsavory characters still filters in from Prague, Zurich, and the USA. These illicit - but economically crucial - funds may explain the government's foot dragging on the privatization of the omnipresent Savings Bank (83% of all deposits, no loans, owns 85% of all treasury bills, 2% net return on equity) and its reluctance to overhaul the moribund banking system and enact anti money laundering measures. It took crushing pressure by IFI's to force the government to hive off the Savings Bank's pension plan business into Albapost, the local Post Office.

In the intervening years, Albania got its fiscal act together (though its tax base is still minimal) and made meaningful inroads into the informal economy (read: organized crime), not least by dramatically improving its hitherto venal and smuggler-infested customs service. A collateral registry has been introduced and much debated bankruptcy and mediation laws may be enacted next year. Everything, from the operations of the Central Bank to the executive branches is being revamped. Those who remained in Albania are much more invigorated than they have been in a long time.

But the problems are structural. Albania is among the few countries in our post-modern world which rely on agriculture (55%) rather than industry (24%), or services (21%). Only 40% of the population live in cities and female illiteracy is still at 24%. Tourism (especially of the archeological kind) is promising. But there are less than 6 computers and 40 phones per 1000 citizens and less than 40% of the roads are paved (Albanians were forbidden to own private cars until 1985). FDI amounts to a measly $50 million a year and aid per capita has tripled to c. $160 since 1997. Pervasive electricity shortages (despite budget draining subsidies of imported energy) hamper economic activity. Albania was rated 100th (out of 174) in the UNDP's Human Development Index and 90th (out of 175) in UNICEF's Report on the State of the World's Children (under-five mortality). Its neighbors ranked 55-73.

The isolationist legacy of the demented and paranoid Enver Hoxha is only partly to blame. Mismanagement, corruption, the criminalization of society, and tribalism are equally at fault in post-Communist Albania. Everyone takes bribes - not surprising when a senior Minister earns less than $1000 a month (ten times the average salary). A well developed, though fast eroded, social (extended family, village, tribe) safety net ensures that only 20% of the population are under the official poverty line. But these extended ties are one of the reasons for local unemployment (almost 20% of the workforce) - immigrant workers (mostly family members) constitute more than 25% of those employed.

With a youthful (32) Prime Minister (Ilir Meta, overwhelmingly re-elected this year) who is an economist by profession, Albania is reaching out to its neighbours. As early as 1992 it joined the improbable (and hitherto ineffective) Black Sea Economic Cooperation Pact (with Greece, Turkey and ... Azerbaijan and Armenia!) - which currently lobbies for the re-opening of the Danube River. Albanian cheap exports are competitive only if transported via river. Albania signed recently a series of bilateral agreements with Montenegro regarding transportation on the Bojana river and the Skadar Lake, use of harbors, the extension of railways and roads, and the regulation of aviation rights. Despite the fact that Macedonia is (abnormally for geographical neighbors) not an important trading partner, Albania has responded positively to all the Macedonian initiatives for economic and political integration of the region. It is here, in regional collaboration and synergy, that Albania's future rests. Should the region deteriorate once more into mayhem and worse, Albania would be amongst the first and foremost to suffer. Hence its surprisingly conciliatory stance in the recent crisis in Macedonia. It seems that Albanian politicians have wisely decided to move from a "Great Albania" to a prosperous one.

About The Author

Sam Vaknin is the author of "Malignant Self Love - Narcissism Revisited" and "After the Rain - How the West Lost the East". He is a columnist in "Central Europe Review", United Press International (UPI) and ebookweb.org and the editor of mental health and Central East Europe categories in The Open Directory, Suite101 and searcheurope.com. Until recently, he served as the Economic Advisor to the Government of Macedonia.

His web site: http://samvak.tripod.com

house cleaning near Wilmette ...

In The News:

The commercial Unitree H1 humanoid robot weighs 104 pounds with 365 pound-feet torque per joint and demonstrates dangerous potential when software glitches occur.

Americans average 10-plus hours online daily, according to recent survey, splitting time between streaming shows on TV and browsing websites on multiple devices.

Boost your smartphone privacy instantly with these security tweaks for iPhone and Android that limit ad tracking, hide notifications and prevent unauthorized access.

Platforms like Hoax Tech and JS Click Cloaker help cybercriminals bypass detection systems using machine learning to selectively display scam content to victims.

A new battery recycling technique transforms old lithium-ion batteries into high-performance components that retain 88% capacity after 500 cycles with minimal waste.

Google's Android operating system can warn users about earthquakes before the shaking even begins – and there are ways to do it on your iPhone, too.

Meta's new gesture control wristband might just be the most seamless way to control a computer yet. And no, it doesn't require surgery, a camera, or even a touchscreen. All it needs is your wrist.

Long-haul trucks are now being upgraded with a surprising twist, thanks to California-based startup Revoy. Their electric boost doesn't replace diesel but works alongside it to cut emissions and fuel costs without major disruption.

PayPal and Venmo just rolled out something big: AI-powered scam alerts for Friends and Family payments.

As data centers multiply across the United States, energy demand is increasing at a rapid pace. This has not escaped the notice of large investment firms from Wall Street.

The Unicode Consortium, the nonprofit organization that maintains the Unicode Standard to ensure emojis work across devices, has announced Unicode 17.0, which includes nine new emojis slated for release this fall, in September 2025.

OpenAI is one of the world's leading AI research labs. Founded in 2015, it's behind some of today's most talked-about tools, including GPT, DALL·E, and ChatGPT.

Ever catch your dog staring at the screen during movie night and wonder if they're actually watching? Turns out, they might be. A new scientific study from Auburn University found that many dogs really do engage with television, and not all pups react the same way.

Stop the scammers from making contact in the first place. They're getting your parents' contact information and much more personal data besides, from somewhere.

The Walker S2 robot from UBTech autonomously exchanges its batteries in just three minutes, allowing continuous operation in car factories operated by BYD, Nio and Zeekr.

The FX Super One electric MPV from Faraday Future offers flexible seating, zero-gravity recliners and an AI system that creates a personal connection between driver and vehicle.

Practical solutions for reducing unwanted charity mail, political texts and email spam by opting out of shared lists, replying "STOP" and using data removal services.

Delta's new AI pricing system eliminates static airfares for personalized rates based on individual data, raising questions about fairness while promising optimized revenue.

AI data centers are straining the power grid across 13 states, contributing to a $9 billion increase in electricity costs, and PJM customers face monthly bill increases of $25 or more.

Artificial intelligence is transforming the music industry as AI-generated bands like The Velvet Sundown earn substantial streaming revenue, prompting lawsuits from major record labels.

Microsoft phishing scams use fake security alerts and links that redirect to credential-stealing pages with warning signs, including urgent language and unusual senders.

Stay up to date on the latest AI technology advancements and learn about the challenges and opportunities AI presents now and for the future.

Tesla vehicles manufactured since mid-2021 with AMD Ryzen processors can now access Grok 4, xAI's witty conversational assistant designed to make drives more engaging.

Understand how technology affects mental health through five concepts, including blue light exposure, screen time management and algorithmic bias.

Electric vehicle maker Lucid adds hands-free driving through an over-the-air update for Air sedan owners with the DreamDrive Pro package and Gravity SUV support coming later.

The Second Coming in Albania

Political