Home
>
Political
>
OPECs Swan Song?

OPECs Swan Song?

Indonesia's Energy Minister, Purnomo Yusgiantoro, is unhappy with the modest production cut, from June 1, of 2 million barrels per day, adopted by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last week. He intends to demand further reductions at the June 11 get-together in Qatar.

The deal struck is so convoluted and loopholed that actual output declines may amount to no more than 600,000 bpd, assuming, miraculously, full compliance. Quotas were first raised before the war to 27.4 million bpd - a theoretical level, not met by actual supply. Crude prices, entering a period of seasonal weakening, dropped further on the news.

With Nigerian and Venezuelan crude recovering from months of strife, this downtrend may be temporary. Global excess capacity is a mere 1 million bpd - one fifth its prewar level. As North American and North Sea production declines, the importance of Gulf producers soars.

OPEC's eleven countries - Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq (suspended in 1990, following its invasion of Kuwait), Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela - control one third to two fifths of global oil output and three quarters of the far more important residual demand - traded between net consumers and net exporters. Residual demand is set to double by 2010.

Still, OPEC - led by Saudi Arabia, now off the US buddy list - faces fundamental problems that no tweaking can resolve. Iraq, in the throes of reconstruction and under America's thumb, may opt to exit the club it has founded in 1960 and, thus unfettered, flood the market with its 2.3 to 2.8 million bpd of oil. Iraqi production can reach 7-8 million bpd in six years, completely upsetting the carefully balanced market sharing agreements among OPEC members.

This nightmare may be years away, what with Iraq's dilapidated and much-looted infrastructure and vehement international wrangling over past and future contracts. All the same, it looms menacing over the organization's future.

Far more ominous perils lurk in Russia, the second largest oil producer and growing. Though the cheapest and most abundant reserves are still to be found in the Persian Gulf, Central Asia and Russia are catching up fast. Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister may be forced out of office by this apparent crumbling of the organization's stature.

This would be unwise. Naimi is widely credited with engineering the tripling of oil prices to more than $30 a barrel between 1998 and 1999. As the informal boss of the state-owned Saudi oil behemoth, Aramco, he has already introduced postwar output cuts. The oil market is so volatile that even marginal production shifts affect prices disproportionately. Naimi is a master of such manipulation.

Saudi Arabia regards itself as the market regulator. It keeps expensive, fully-developed, wells idle as a 1.9 million bpd buffer against supply disruptions. It is this "self-sacrificial" policy that endows it with tremendous clout in the energy markets. Only the United States can afford to emulate it - and even then, the Saudi Kingdom still possesses the largest known reserves and sports the lowest extraction costs worldwide.

OPEC is, therefore, not without muscle. Saudi Arabia had punished uppity producers, such as Nigeria, by flooding the markets and pulverizing prices. Yet, the organization is riven by internecine squabbles about market shares and production ceilings. Giants and dwarves cohabit uneasily and collude to choreograph prices in what has long been a buyers' market. These inherent contradictions are detrimental. If OPEC fails to recruit another massive producer (namely: Russia) soon - it is doomed.

Paradoxically, the Iraq war is exactly what the doctor ordered. OPEC's only long-term hope lies in a geopolitical shift, the harbingers of which are already visible. Russia may join the cartel, disenchanted by an imperious and haughty USA - or the Europeans may "adopt" OPEC as a counterweight to the sole "hyperpower" newfound energy preeminence.

America announced its intention to pull out its troops stationed in Saudi Arabia. As this major producer is thrust into the role of the "bad guy" - it acquires incentives to team up with other "pariahs" such as France and, potentially, Russia. Controlling the oil taps is a sure way to render the USA less unilateral and more accommodating.

US interest are diametrically opposed to those of oil producers, whether in OPEC's ranks or without. The United States seeks to secure an uninterrupted supply of cheap oil. Yet, a consistently low price level would go a long way towards reducing Russia back to erstwhile penury. It would also destabilize authoritarian and venal regimes throughout the Middle East.

This unsettling realization is dawning now on minds from Paris to Riyadh and from St. Petersburg to Tehran. As the United States looms large over both producers and consumers, the ironic outcome of the Iraqi war may well be an oil crunch rather than an oil glut.

About The Author

Sam Vaknin is the author of Malignant Self Love - Narcissism Revisited and After the Rain - How the West Lost the East. He is a columnist for Central Europe Review, PopMatters, and eBookWeb , a United Press International (UPI) Senior Business Correspondent, and the editor of mental health and Central East Europe categories in The Open Directory Bellaonline, and Suite101 .

Until recently, he served as the Economic Advisor to the Government of Macedonia.

Visit Sam's Web site at http://samvak.tripod.com; http://samvak.tripod.com

licensed cleaning services Park Ridge ..

In The News:

Chrome extension spyware disguised as a free VPN service highlights security risks after it captured private browsing data from trusted sites.

New research shows how fatty acids in cooking oil can safely dissolve and recover silver from circuit boards without harmful chemicals or environmental damage.

The Fox News AI newsletter gives you information on the latest AI technology advancements, and about the challenges and opportunities AI presents now and for the future.

Anthropic investigates alarming AI abuse case where hacker automated entire cybercrime campaign using Claude, stealing sensitive data from defense and healthcare firms.

TikTok, Meta and YouTube restrict Charlie Kirk shooting videos with age gates and warnings while X faces criticism for allowing continued circulation.

Cybercriminals use fake troubleshooting websites to trick Mac users into running terminal commands that install Shamos malware through ClickFix tactics.

San Francisco startup Fable launches Showrunner, an AI platform dubbed the 'Netflix of AI' that generates animated episodes from text descriptions with Amazon support.

Apple raised iPhone prices for some models despite receiving tariff relief from President Donald Trump, with the new lineup starting at $799 for the base model.

A two-story 3D concrete printed home in Western Australia demonstrates faster construction methods that could reshape American housing amid rising costs.

Credit scores remain important during retirement for insurance rates and housing applications, while seniors become prime targets for identity theft and financial scams.

Scammers now send unexpected packages with QR codes that redirect victims to fraudulent websites or download malicious software to steal sensitive information.

Meeting AI tools record private conversations alongside work discussions, creating privacy risks that can be managed with proper settings and awareness.

Hotel privacy concerns are valid but rare, with methods to detect hidden tech using smartphone flashlights, mirror tests and scanning apps.

Improve your Wi-Fi speed and reliability with 10 simple router optimization tips that don't require special apps or expensive subscriptions.

A Columbia University breach exposed names, Social Security numbers and academic records of nearly 869,000 people, with notifications beginning in August.

Rental car drivers use AI-powered apps like Proofr to protect themselves from unfair damage fees as major companies deploy automated inspection tools.

Fox News' AI newsletter brings you the latest on technology advancements around artificial intelligence.

OnTrac data breach between April 13-15, 2025, exposed personal information of over 40,000 people including Social Security numbers and medical records.

A woman named Wika announces her engagement to an AI chatbot sparking worldwide debate about virtual relationships and technology.

The notorious people search site National Public Data relaunches despite a previous breach affecting 3 billion individuals, raising fresh privacy concerns.

Revolutionary TRAUMAGEL gel controls life-threatening bleeding from gunshot wounds and traumatic injuries, helping first responders prevent prehospital deaths.

Protect your home network by enabling proper encryption, creating strong passwords, checking connected devices and using VPN and antivirus software.

The Navy's solar-powered Skydweller drone flew nonstop for 73 hours in Mississippi, proving renewable energy can power long-endurance military missions.

Moving and downsizing expose seniors to identity theft and scams as data brokers collect real estate records and personal information to sell to criminals.

ShengShu's Vidar technology revolutionizes humanoid robot training by using AI-generated synthetic video, reducing required training data from hours to just 20 minutes.

OPECs Swan Song?

Political